Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #854 of 1,000

P0955

Random control. The visible result sits at the 8,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 372

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 628

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 842Deviation -R 6 786

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 628. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 369

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 042 to R 11 633
Finished ahead: 266 / 1,000 (26,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #662 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,62% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.773
Mean bets / session: 3.844
Loss multiplier: 1.177×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 44,4% / 87,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 3 12415 wagers · RTP 58,27%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 53212 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2 45711 wagers · RTP 160,05%

Craps / DiceR 2 42310 wagers · RTP 91,95%

American RouletteR 2 2049 wagers · RTP 8,98%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0998 wagers · RTP 99,62%

CrashR 1 7148 wagers · RTP 55,31%

European RouletteR 1 3095 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 1406 wagers · RTP 74,92%

Lottery / JackpotR 6987 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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