Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #629 of 1,000

P0956

Random control. The visible result sits at the 45,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 773

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 227

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 704Deviation -R 2 524

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 227. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 688

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 694 to R 12 655
Finished ahead: 309 / 1,000 (30,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #615 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,71% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.672
Mean bets / session: 1.169
Loss multiplier: 0.9071×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,5% / 57,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 7564 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2 3725 wagers · RTP 147,55%

European RouletteR 1 3832 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 2642 wagers · RTP 169,30%

BaccaratR 8361 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 266,72%

BlackjackR 3901 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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