Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #554 of 1,000

P0957

Random control. The visible result sits at the 3,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 642

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 359

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 267Deviation -R 2 092

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 359. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 912

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 286 to R 2 825
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #413 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,20% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.386
Mean bets / session: 1.131
Loss multiplier: 0.8702×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,0% / 71,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6315 wagers · RTP 22,82%

CrashR 6145 wagers · RTP 97,31%

Craps / DiceR 4605 wagers · RTP 41,30%

Lottery / JackpotR 4025 wagers · RTP 49,75%

Three-Reel SlotR 3684 wagers · RTP 27,99%

European RouletteR 3535 wagers · RTP 45,04%

American RouletteR 3523 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2642 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1653 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1432 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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