Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #846 of 1,000

P0958

Random control. The visible result sits at the 21,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 596

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 404

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 025Deviation -R 6 379

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 404. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 050

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 697 to R 17 326
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #755 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.131
Mean bets / session: 2.487
Loss multiplier: 1.2387×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,3% / 96,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 4 70312 wagers · RTP 89,54%

CrashR 3 74111 wagers · RTP 45,17%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 42910 wagers · RTP 72,40%

BaccaratR 2 1476 wagers · RTP 144,34%

BlackjackR 2 1165 wagers · RTP 82,61%

American RouletteR 2 0274 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 8033 wagers · RTP 28,06%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 6617 wagers · RTP 83,99%

Three-Reel SlotR 9084 wagers · RTP 55,07%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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