Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #811 of 1,000

P0959

Random control. The visible result sits at the 13,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 423

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 577

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 840Deviation -R 5 737

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 577. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 112

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 636 to R 13 388
Finished ahead: 287 / 1,000 (28,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #649 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,20% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.609
Mean bets / session: 3.46
Loss multiplier: 1.0663×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,0% / 79,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 3 9938 wagers · RTP 138,99%

European RouletteR 3 97810 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 3 4017 wagers · RTP 53,51%

CrashR 3 23710 wagers · RTP 84,45%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 5756 wagers · RTP 91,78%

BaccaratR 1 5656 wagers · RTP 135,44%

American RouletteR 1 4493 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 1415 wagers · RTP 43,82%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 83,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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