Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #776 of 1,000

P0960

Random control. The visible result sits at the 41,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 159

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 841

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 368Deviation -R 4 474

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 841. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 903

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 611 to R 15 165
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #749 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,06% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.946
Mean bets / session: 4.493
Loss multiplier: 1.2218×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 79,7% / 38,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 5 53715 wagers · RTP 135,43%

European RouletteR 4 41110 wagers · RTP 53,66%

CrashR 3 85911 wagers · RTP 44,43%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 43116 wagers · RTP 61,41%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 4069 wagers · RTP 178,63%

Craps / DiceR 3 30312 wagers · RTP 111,17%

American RouletteR 2 6598 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 2 6029 wagers · RTP 106,57%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 18110 wagers · RTP 24,35%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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