Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #563 of 1,000

P0961

Random control. The visible result sits at the 51,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 574

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 427

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 590Deviation -R 1 837

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 427. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 591

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 155 to R 11 630
Finished ahead: 305 / 1,000 (30,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #606 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,17% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.825
Mean bets / session: 2.306
Loss multiplier: 0.9439×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 41,9% / 86,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 5807 wagers · RTP 42,91%

American RouletteR 2 1706 wagers · RTP 80,97%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 8455 wagers · RTP 64,32%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 85,71%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 4986 wagers · RTP 108,34%

CrashR 1 4764 wagers · RTP 31,25%

Craps / DiceR 1 4764 wagers · RTP 150,00%

BlackjackR 1 1073 wagers · RTP 166,67%

BaccaratR 1 1073 wagers · RTP 98,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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