Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #907 of 1,000

P0962

Random control. The visible result sits at the 7,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 009

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 991

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 791Deviation -R 8 200

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 991. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 421

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 120 to R 23 121
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #773 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,11% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.372
Mean bets / session: 2.325
Loss multiplier: 1.056×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 64,6% / 59,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 2 8539 wagers · RTP 125,76%

BlackjackR 2 8259 wagers · RTP 37,42%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 76111 wagers · RTP 36,45%

American RouletteR 2 35710 wagers · RTP 20,11%

European RouletteR 1 9186 wagers · RTP 86,81%

BaccaratR 1 8499 wagers · RTP 43,98%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 79811 wagers · RTP 33,37%

CrashR 1 4136 wagers · RTP 63,27%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1775 wagers · RTP 42,48%

Lottery / JackpotR 6387 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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