Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #305 of 1,000

P0963

Random control. The visible result sits at the 64,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 661

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 339

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 103Deviation -R 236

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 339. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 664

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 506 to R 2 152
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #379 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,02% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.011
Mean bets / session: 1.028
Loss multiplier: 0.9161×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 52,4% / 54,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 5845 wagers · RTP 181,16%

European RouletteR 4154 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2704 wagers · RTP 60,00%

BaccaratR 2682 wagers · RTP 132,43%

BlackjackR 2213 wagers · RTP 94,12%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1973 wagers · RTP 27,41%

CrashR 1222 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 712 wagers · RTP 22,54%

Virtual Sports BettingR 441 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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