Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #910 of 1,000

P0965

Random control. The visible result sits at the 51,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 951

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 049

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 005Deviation -R 7 044

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 049. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 239

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 987 to R 28 696
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 16 / 1,000 (1,6%)
Median rank: #905 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.393
Mean bets / session: 4.354
Loss multiplier: 1.1605×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,2% / 102,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 76314 wagers · RTP 89,27%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 44118 wagers · RTP 70,54%

Craps / DiceR 6 16910 wagers · RTP 99,82%

European RouletteR 5 98914 wagers · RTP 32,79%

American RouletteR 5 43712 wagers · RTP 87,75%

CrashR 4 66614 wagers · RTP 168,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 46020 wagers · RTP 100,62%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 22315 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3 1327 wagers · RTP 83,68%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 14,29%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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