Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #798 of 1,000

P0966

Random control. The visible result sits at the 14,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 701

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 299

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 607Deviation -R 5 692

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 299. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 363

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 254 to R 13 730
Finished ahead: 261 / 1,000 (26,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #668 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,69% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.66
Mean bets / session: 2.985
Loss multiplier: 1.0226×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 75,9% / 106,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 2 7947 wagers · RTP 78,60%

CrashR 2 3168 wagers · RTP 83,12%

BaccaratR 1 7704 wagers · RTP 61,36%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 6117 wagers · RTP 34,45%

European RouletteR 1 5815 wagers · RTP 17,20%

Craps / DiceR 1 3383 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 9133 wagers · RTP 138,66%

Three-Reel SlotR 7263 wagers · RTP 34,44%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 57,14%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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