Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #729 of 1,000

P0967

Random control. The visible result sits at the 12,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 150

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 850

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 649Deviation -R 4 201

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 850. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 796

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 431 to R 8 122
Finished ahead: 211 / 1,000 (21,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #621 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,86% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.839
Mean bets / session: 4.214
Loss multiplier: 0.9493×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 35,4% / 107,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 48215 wagers · RTP 49,72%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 93015 wagers · RTP 49,77%

European RouletteR 1 78610 wagers · RTP 67,30%

BlackjackR 1 54314 wagers · RTP 89,95%

Craps / DiceR 1 35512 wagers · RTP 109,08%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8869 wagers · RTP 101,47%

BaccaratR 8657 wagers · RTP 70,11%

Lottery / JackpotR 8599 wagers · RTP 43,77%

American RouletteR 7558 wagers · RTP 9,27%

CrashR 6035 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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