Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #797 of 1,000

P0968

Random control. The visible result sits at the 17,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 720

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 280

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 134Deviation -R 5 147

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 280. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 174

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 321 to R 12 733
Finished ahead: 206 / 1,000 (20,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #709 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,15% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.307
Mean bets / session: 4.368
Loss multiplier: 0.8798×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 53,6% / 78,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 29223 wagers · RTP 75,78%

Craps / DiceR 2 70117 wagers · RTP 53,46%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 63621 wagers · RTP 70,14%

CrashR 2 63219 wagers · RTP 62,73%

European RouletteR 2 28522 wagers · RTP 81,01%

American RouletteR 2 04914 wagers · RTP 54,56%

BaccaratR 1 73213 wagers · RTP 127,66%

BlackjackR 1 60311 wagers · RTP 83,59%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 53513 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 29218 wagers · RTP 117,49%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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