Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #534 of 1,000

P0969

Random control. The visible result sits at the 38,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 865

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 135

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 411Deviation -R 1 724

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 135. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 611

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 951 to R 4 541
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #501 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,67% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.665
Mean bets / session: 3.139
Loss multiplier: 0.8883×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,2% / 89,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 1 35210 wagers · RTP 35,78%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0486 wagers · RTP 94,66%

Craps / DiceR 9046 wagers · RTP 84,51%

European RouletteR 8735 wagers · RTP 56,36%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8535 wagers · RTP 68,58%

BlackjackR 7335 wagers · RTP 107,09%

BaccaratR 6054 wagers · RTP 34,71%

Lottery / JackpotR 5607 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 5554 wagers · RTP 251,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3593 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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