Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #64 of 1,000

P0970

Random control. The visible result sits at the 95,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 17 381

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7 381

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 414Deviation R 7 795

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7 381. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 816

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 202 to R 5 781
Finished ahead: 239 / 1,000 (23,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #525 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,67% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.161
Mean bets / session: 1.467
Loss multiplier: 1.1259×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,1% / 60,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 1 8068 wagers · RTP 201,11%

Craps / DiceR 1 7007 wagers · RTP 113,65%

BlackjackR 1 2425 wagers · RTP 187,84%

BaccaratR 1 1124 wagers · RTP 75,00%

European RouletteR 1 1124 wagers · RTP 575,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8343 wagers · RTP 67,06%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 3732 wagers · RTP 141,55%

Three-Reel SlotR 3232 wagers · RTP 83,90%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 66,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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