Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #594 of 1,000

P0971

Random control. The visible result sits at the 6,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 263

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 737

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 208Deviation -R 2 529

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 737. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 170

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 846 to R 3 824
Finished ahead: 235 / 1,000 (23,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #444 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.539
Mean bets / session: 3.199
Loss multiplier: 1.0766×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,5% / 39,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7746 wagers · RTP 32,14%

BaccaratR 7176 wagers · RTP 66,72%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6946 wagers · RTP 5,91%

American RouletteR 4114 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4074 wagers · RTP 67,08%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4045 wagers · RTP 100,07%

Lottery / JackpotR 3384 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2472 wagers · RTP 37,45%

Craps / DiceR 2042 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1932 wagers · RTP 59,07%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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