Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #225 of 1,000

P0972

Random control. The visible result sits at the 74,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 007

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 328Deviation R 1 335

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 264

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 899 to R 20 566
Finished ahead: 258 / 1,000 (25,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #760 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.977
Mean bets / session: 2.927
Loss multiplier: 0.8535×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,5% / 70,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 4 84811 wagers · RTP 57,08%

European RouletteR 4 8218 wagers · RTP 119,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 0359 wagers · RTP 162,17%

American RouletteR 3 9486 wagers · RTP 101,93%

BlackjackR 3 6686 wagers · RTP 126,91%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 00012 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Craps / DiceR 2 8484 wagers · RTP 75,74%

BaccaratR 1 7963 wagers · RTP 159,97%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2155 wagers · RTP 17,70%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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