Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #851 of 1,000

P0973

Random control. The visible result sits at the 31,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 479

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 521

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 219Deviation -R 6 302

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 521. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 152

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 481 to R 23 255
Finished ahead: 274 / 1,000 (27,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #761 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.334
Mean bets / session: 3.014
Loss multiplier: 0.8982×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 41,5% / 106,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 4 12711 wagers · RTP 87,04%

BlackjackR 4 00312 wagers · RTP 112,57%

BaccaratR 3 95311 wagers · RTP 97,44%

American RouletteR 3 54511 wagers · RTP 14,39%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 4569 wagers · RTP 106,40%

Craps / DiceR 3 3499 wagers · RTP 98,48%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 53711 wagers · RTP 19,71%

CrashR 2 3898 wagers · RTP 85,62%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 9938 wagers · RTP 37,63%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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