Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #538 of 1,000

P0974

Random control. The visible result sits at the 18,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 845

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 155

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 250Deviation -R 1 905

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 155. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 078

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 889 to R 3 817
Finished ahead: 270 / 1,000 (27,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #432 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 2,00% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.942
Mean bets / session: 1.037
Loss multiplier: 1.0423×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,0% / 37,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0916 wagers · RTP 91,98%

BaccaratR 8684 wagers · RTP 93,09%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7204 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 4142 wagers · RTP 87,92%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 2321 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 1872 wagers · RTP 42,11%

American RouletteR 1801 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1621 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1551 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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