Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #743 of 1,000

P0976

Random control. The visible result sits at the 18,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 838

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 162

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 360Deviation -R 4 802

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 162. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 402

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 557 to R 14 861
Finished ahead: 290 / 1,000 (29,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #583 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 6,87% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.596
Mean bets / session: 1.846
Loss multiplier: 1.0371×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,2% / 84,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 4073 wagers · RTP 181,43%

BlackjackR 9192 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 8031 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 7502 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 7461 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 5901 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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