Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #477 of 1,000

P0977

Random control. The visible result sits at the 49,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 343

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 657

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 233Deviation -R 1 425

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 657. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 616

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 159 to R 6 212
Finished ahead: 279 / 1,000 (27,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #503 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,62% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.83
Mean bets / session: 1.2
Loss multiplier: 0.8966×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,8% / 102,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 1173 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0483 wagers · RTP 304,06%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9234 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7874 wagers · RTP 54,51%

Craps / DiceR 6612 wagers · RTP 88,65%

CrashR 6042 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 4401 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 1451 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1341 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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