Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #697 of 1,000

P0978

Random control. The visible result sits at the 43,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 632

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 368

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 959Deviation -R 3 409

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 368. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 684

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 951 to R 21 359
Finished ahead: 267 / 1,000 (26,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #685 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,83% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.262
Mean bets / session: 2.155
Loss multiplier: 0.9121×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,9% / 65,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 4928 wagers · RTP 78,92%

American RouletteR 3 1557 wagers · RTP 50,40%

European RouletteR 3 0207 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 58611 wagers · RTP 147,95%

Craps / DiceR 2 0245 wagers · RTP 101,09%

BlackjackR 1 4993 wagers · RTP 92,73%

BaccaratR 1 2724 wagers · RTP 94,10%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 120,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 54,55%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 125,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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