Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #760 of 1,000

P0979

Random control. The visible result sits at the 25,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 491

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 509

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 924Deviation -R 4 585

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 509. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 908

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 964 to R 13 531
Finished ahead: 306 / 1,000 (30,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #630 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 7,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.813
Mean bets / session: 2.063
Loss multiplier: 1.2395×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 78,5% / 62,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 4 93710 wagers · RTP 71,72%

Craps / DiceR 4 4569 wagers · RTP 91,16%

American RouletteR 3 3177 wagers · RTP 22,37%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 4885 wagers · RTP 133,64%

European RouletteR 2 4565 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 2 1084 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BlackjackR 4801 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 500,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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