Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #634 of 1,000

P0980

Random control. The visible result sits at the 64,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 718

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 282

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 945Deviation -R 1 336

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 282. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 531

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 753 to R 21 761
Finished ahead: 246 / 1,000 (24,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #814 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.619
Mean bets / session: 4.887
Loss multiplier: 0.9326×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 33,1% / 48,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 35110 wagers · RTP 100,79%

CrashR 4 85011 wagers · RTP 146,91%

American RouletteR 3 8216 wagers · RTP 69,25%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 6578 wagers · RTP 124,13%

Craps / DiceR 3 6535 wagers · RTP 172,19%

European RouletteR 3 5006 wagers · RTP 44,83%

BaccaratR 2 7954 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 22,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 75,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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