Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #923 of 1,000

P0982

Random control. The visible result sits at the 24,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 679

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 321

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 449Deviation -R 7 872

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 321. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 409

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 918 to R 27 415
Finished ahead: 255 / 1,000 (25,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #808 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,00% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.346
Mean bets / session: 4.236
Loss multiplier: 1.2493×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,0% / 84,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 5 66223 wagers · RTP 120,63%

Craps / DiceR 4 23817 wagers · RTP 83,74%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 14521 wagers · RTP 15,32%

American RouletteR 4 06218 wagers · RTP 42,39%

CrashR 3 66615 wagers · RTP 55,57%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 23414 wagers · RTP 88,31%

European RouletteR 3 12312 wagers · RTP 76,43%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 67911 wagers · RTP 92,96%

BlackjackR 1 4237 wagers · RTP 103,90%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 07411 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies