Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #32 of 1,000

P0984

Random control. The visible result sits at the 89,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 26 263

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 16 263

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 322Deviation R 19 585

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 16 263. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 654

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 951 to R 27 404
Finished ahead: 244 / 1,000 (24,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #884 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.95
Mean bets / session: 4.777
Loss multiplier: 0.9568×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,5% / 107,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 15 59717 wagers · RTP 74,30%

Craps / DiceR 13 05314 wagers · RTP 78,64%

American RouletteR 12 31414 wagers · RTP 202,07%

European RouletteR 12 28413 wagers · RTP 169,96%

BlackjackR 10 43911 wagers · RTP 122,73%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 00014 wagers · RTP 101,42%

CrashR 3 0006 wagers · RTP 62,50%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 190,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 2509 wagers · RTP 11,11%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 10011 wagers · RTP 127,27%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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