Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #746 of 1,000

P0985

Random control. The visible result sits at the 8,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 822

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 178

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 612Deviation -R 4 566

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 178. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 767

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 513 to R 7 360
Finished ahead: 218 / 1,000 (21,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #622 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,95% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.674
Mean bets / session: 3.828
Loss multiplier: 0.9284×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,1% / 50,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 1 86912 wagers · RTP 40,32%

Craps / DiceR 9397 wagers · RTP 53,25%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9347 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 8937 wagers · RTP 18,81%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8757 wagers · RTP 25,85%

Lottery / JackpotR 7038 wagers · RTP 48,93%

European RouletteR 6525 wagers · RTP 15,64%

BlackjackR 5973 wagers · RTP 18,93%

American RouletteR 5514 wagers · RTP 179,67%

BaccaratR 3622 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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