Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #840 of 1,000

P0986

Random control. The visible result sits at the 30,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 861

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 139

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 129Deviation -R 6 011

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 139. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 513

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 307 to R 21 518
Finished ahead: 267 / 1,000 (26,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #733 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,85% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.653
Mean bets / session: 3.311
Loss multiplier: 0.9742×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,7% / 41,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 6 64910 wagers · RTP 73,17%

European RouletteR 4 3508 wagers · RTP 47,93%

BaccaratR 3 9847 wagers · RTP 117,34%

Craps / DiceR 3 7566 wagers · RTP 162,99%

American RouletteR 3 1066 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3 0006 wagers · RTP 83,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 85,71%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 77,25%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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