Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #725 of 1,000

P0987

Random control. The visible result sits at the 2,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 226

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 774

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 438Deviation -R 4 336

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 774. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 177

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 462 to R 7 834
Finished ahead: 241 / 1,000 (24,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #563 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.034
Mean bets / session: 1.46
Loss multiplier: 0.8601×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,1% / 80,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 6297 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 0365 wagers · RTP 49,23%

Craps / DiceR 9633 wagers · RTP 80,79%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8944 wagers · RTP 29,71%

BaccaratR 8273 wagers · RTP 139,54%

European RouletteR 8224 wagers · RTP 78,59%

Three-Reel SlotR 7073 wagers · RTP 17,68%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4685 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4073 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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