Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #30 of 1,000

P0988

Random control. The visible result sits at the 93,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 27 563

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 17 563

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 294Deviation R 19 858

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 17 563. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 486

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 850 to R 23 747
Finished ahead: 227 / 1,000 (22,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #773 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 3,88% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.979
Mean bets / session: 4.305
Loss multiplier: 1.0135×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,6% / 90,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 8 95115 wagers · RTP 316,39%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8 14822 wagers · RTP 122,85%

Craps / DiceR 7 49213 wagers · RTP 121,38%

European RouletteR 6 20311 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 5 58010 wagers · RTP 117,50%

BaccaratR 5 2429 wagers · RTP 82,35%

CrashR 2 8427 wagers · RTP 238,83%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 14,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 4136 wagers · RTP 17,69%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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