Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #171 of 1,000

P0989

Random control. The visible result sits at the 74,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 414

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 414

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 845Deviation R 2 259

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 414. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 270

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 904 to R 24 114
Finished ahead: 260 / 1,000 (26,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #843 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,64% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.364
Mean bets / session: 2.808
Loss multiplier: 1.0077×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 39,0% / 67,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 10 71616 wagers · RTP 60,44%

BlackjackR 8 29213 wagers · RTP 93,14%

CrashR 6 90414 wagers · RTP 176,20%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 2649 wagers · RTP 175,88%

Craps / DiceR 3 9157 wagers · RTP 39,44%

BaccaratR 3 2565 wagers · RTP 135,93%

European RouletteR 3 0884 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 200,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2355 wagers · RTP 101,21%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 44,44%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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