Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #739 of 1,000

P0990

Random control. The visible result sits at the 45,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 952

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 048

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 023Deviation -R 4 024

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 048. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 4 550

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 048 to R 18 522
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #731 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.236
Mean bets / session: 2.703
Loss multiplier: 0.9479×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,6% / 105,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 3 97210 wagers · RTP 79,15%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 69710 wagers · RTP 121,78%

BlackjackR 2 6717 wagers · RTP 63,65%

BaccaratR 2 1608 wagers · RTP 59,49%

American RouletteR 1 9755 wagers · RTP 46,63%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 8989 wagers · RTP 152,92%

CrashR 1 5866 wagers · RTP 100,41%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 4897 wagers · RTP 13,43%

Craps / DiceR 1 2044 wagers · RTP 11,79%

Lottery / JackpotR 98510 wagers · RTP 20,30%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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