Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #868 of 1,000

P0991

Random control. The visible result sits at the 55,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 910

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 090

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 517Deviation -R 6 573

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 090. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 767

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 971 to R 28 402
Finished ahead: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #891 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.075
Mean bets / session: 4.254
Loss multiplier: 1.0874×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 45,0% / 81,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 5 01110 wagers · RTP 64,18%

BlackjackR 4 47210 wagers · RTP 108,97%

Craps / DiceR 4 18914 wagers · RTP 89,76%

American RouletteR 3 66412 wagers · RTP 83,41%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 87610 wagers · RTP 84,88%

CrashR 1 9785 wagers · RTP 53,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 75710 wagers · RTP 74,70%

BaccaratR 1 6376 wagers · RTP 32,25%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 51616 wagers · RTP 13,19%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 4898 wagers · RTP 3,96%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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