Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #260 of 1,000

P0992

Random control. The visible result sits at the 68,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 854

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 146

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 857Deviation R 711

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 146. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 631

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 683 to R 19 179
Finished ahead: 308 / 1,000 (30,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #679 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.26
Mean bets / session: 1.254
Loss multiplier: 1.0434×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 33,5% / 71,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 5 7557 wagers · RTP 155,64%

American RouletteR 5 0586 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 4 9206 wagers · RTP 137,24%

BlackjackR 3 7494 wagers · RTP 96,08%

CrashR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 151,77%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 183,33%

European RouletteR 5671 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 440,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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