Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #53 of 1,000

P0993

Random control. The visible result sits at the 96,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 19 191

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 9 191

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 594Deviation R 9 785

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 9 191. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 031

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 380 to R 7 188
Finished ahead: 268 / 1,000 (26,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #548 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 4,92% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.011
Mean bets / session: 1.532
Loss multiplier: 1.0932×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,6% / 75,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 2 5968 wagers · RTP 130,93%

CrashR 1 6305 wagers · RTP 250,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6305 wagers · RTP 100,24%

American RouletteR 1 1824 wagers · RTP 579,19%

BaccaratR 9783 wagers · RTP 66,67%

European RouletteR 9783 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 150,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

Craps / DiceR 6522 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 166,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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