Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #213 of 1,000

P0994

Random control. The visible result sits at the 71,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 075

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 75

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 281Deviation R 1 356

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 75. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 692

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 564 to R 12 862
Finished ahead: 283 / 1,000 (28,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #680 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.77
Mean bets / session: 2.608
Loss multiplier: 1.0172×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 54,9% / 67,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 6 89810 wagers · RTP 122,25%

American RouletteR 6 3729 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BaccaratR 4 4947 wagers · RTP 86,74%

BlackjackR 3 9666 wagers · RTP 57,19%

CrashR 3 5007 wagers · RTP 242,86%

Craps / DiceR 3 0545 wagers · RTP 92,63%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 158,78%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 116,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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