Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #69 of 1,000

P0995

Random control. The visible result sits at the 92,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 15 940

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 940

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 435Deviation R 6 375

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 5 940. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 186

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 417 to R 7 992
Finished ahead: 279 / 1,000 (27,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #568 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,90% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.514
Mean bets / session: 2.844
Loss multiplier: 0.8548×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,8% / 52,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 2 4126 wagers · RTP 66,33%

European RouletteR 2 0155 wagers · RTP 460,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 6124 wagers · RTP 158,81%

American RouletteR 1 2093 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

CrashR 8062 wagers · RTP 250,00%

BlackjackR 8062 wagers · RTP 100,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 2002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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