Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #727 of 1,000

P0996

Random control. The visible result sits at the 37,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 5 200

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 4 800

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 988Deviation -R 3 812

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 4 800. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 619

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 340 to R 15 528
Finished ahead: 262 / 1,000 (26,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #681 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 5,22% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.084
Mean bets / session: 2.087
Loss multiplier: 1.1427×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 64,9% / 92,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 2 5397 wagers · RTP 73,57%

American RouletteR 2 0456 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 8705 wagers · RTP 99,20%

Craps / DiceR 1 8616 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 1 5084 wagers · RTP 75,00%

BaccaratR 1 4974 wagers · RTP 124,45%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 3724 wagers · RTP 319,89%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1645 wagers · RTP 42,96%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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