Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #660 of 1,000

P0997

Random control. The visible result sits at the 22,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 156

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 844

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 536Deviation -R 3 308

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 844. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 469

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 941 to R 6 928
Finished ahead: 228 / 1,000 (22,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #592 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.175
Mean bets / session: 2.516
Loss multiplier: 1.1024×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 79,9% / 40,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2 42914 wagers · RTP 78,18%

BlackjackR 1 72311 wagers · RTP 40,63%

Craps / DiceR 1 71014 wagers · RTP 76,02%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0926 wagers · RTP 44,97%

American RouletteR 1 0669 wagers · RTP 51,78%

Three-Reel SlotR 7845 wagers · RTP 143,24%

European RouletteR 7435 wagers · RTP 96,90%

Lottery / JackpotR 6267 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5133 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 4523 wagers · RTP 112,56%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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