Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #583 of 1,000

P0998

Random control. The visible result sits at the 42,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 387

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 613

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 451Deviation -R 2 162

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 613. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 026

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 215 to R 7 229
Finished ahead: 303 / 1,000 (30,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #552 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 8,28% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.742
Mean bets / session: 2.213
Loss multiplier: 0.9272×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,9% / 75,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 1 5305 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 1 5305 wagers · RTP 220,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 2485 wagers · RTP 39,98%

Craps / DiceR 6122 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6122 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 6122 wagers · RTP 150,00%

European RouletteR 6122 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 5672 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies