Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #621 of 1,000

P0999

Random control. The visible result sits at the 55,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 872

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 128

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 753Deviation -R 2 375

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 128. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 3 504

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 516 to R 9 390
Finished ahead: 218 / 1,000 (21,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #670 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 1,24% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.266
Mean bets / session: 4.148
Loss multiplier: 1.2022×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,9% / 81,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 3 74424 wagers · RTP 138,78%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 63920 wagers · RTP 2,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 31918 wagers · RTP 82,20%

Craps / DiceR 1 86816 wagers · RTP 93,58%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 84417 wagers · RTP 225,08%

American RouletteR 1 61713 wagers · RTP 6,68%

BaccaratR 1 40112 wagers · RTP 54,00%

European RouletteR 1 1298 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 89710 wagers · RTP 80,43%

Lottery / JackpotR 6158 wagers · RTP 48,13%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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