The Factory for African Urbanisation

C01

In the central build-out, South African-linked firms record US$264 billion of cumulative gross sales and about US$137 billion of domestic value added over twenty-five years.

GSX:AFR-003:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Urban anchorThe demographic anchor is a rise from roughly 700 million urban residents to 1.4 billion by 2050. The manuscript attributes the trajectory to UN-Habitat and the United Nations, not to a GreyScienx population forecast.moderate sensitivity

A02Contestable share and retentionAbout US$7.1 trillion of the central market is treated as contestable by external suppliers. The retention case keeps 52 percent of captured sales as South African value added.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Central build-out, 2026-2050The central scenario is US$17.9 trillion of all-in urban capital formation. Captured South African-linked gross sales are US$264 billion.modelled

R02Central case, 52 percent retentionDomestic value added is about US$137 billion over twenty-five years, US$5.5 billion a year on average, with an illustrative 65,000 direct jobs.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Factory for African Urbanisation · GSX:AFR-003:PDF