Research archive

The work,
by series.

Browse complete manuscripts organised into connected research series. Choose a paper to open the full publication.

27papers

5research series

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Research series

Household Economics

How household formation changes the cost of living, saving and lifetime financial resilience.

1 paper

01.01The Economics of Living TogetherA Gauteng lifetime scenario comparing early cohabitation, delayed cohabitation and separate households.19 pages · 0.57 MB

Research series

Population Futures

Twelve connected studies of ageing, work, fertility, retirement, inheritance and fiscal pressure.

12 papers

02.01When Retirement Becomes ImpossibleThe demographic and financial limits of retirement at 60.14 pages · 1.01 MB

02.02Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension CrisisYouth unemployment followed across a lifetime and into old-age dependence.15 pages · 0.83 MB

02.03Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?Later retirement tested against youth unemployment, productivity and disability.15 pages · 0.95 MB

02.04The Politics of an Ageing ElectorateHow voter age structure can redirect spending and intergenerational transfers.15 pages · 0.93 MB

02.05Emergency Ageing AusterityPolicy packages for closing an ageing-related fiscal deficit with lower welfare loss.15 pages · 1.06 MB

02.06The Price of Another ChildWhen fertility support becomes cheaper than financing demographic decline.19 pages · 1.00 MB

02.07The Hundred-Year LifeEducation, work, housing and family life redesigned for 100–120 year lives.23 pages · 1.10 MB

02.08Inheritance After RetirementThe economic value of inheritance arriving at 40, 55, 70 or 85.20 pages · 1.03 MB

02.09How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking ItHousing, cities and public infrastructure under population contraction.22 pages · 1.29 MB

02.10The Scarce-Worker EconomyAutomation, productivity and immigration as substitutes for missing workers.23 pages · 1.40 MB

02.11The Population SystemA synthesis of the ten population studies as one connected policy system.29 pages · 1.08 MB

02.12Extreme Fiscal PressureHow emergency government measures introduced in 2050 could alter the population system.29 pages · 1.76 MB

Research series

The R350 Counterfactual

What South Africa might have built with the SRD budget—and what society would have lost by withholding it.

5 papers

03.01The R350 Industrialisation CounterfactualThe productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers.21 pages · 1.38 MB

03.02The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the GrantThe poverty, consumption and social cost omitted from the industrialisation counterfactual.27 pages · 1.44 MB

03.03Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?The timing and distributional trade-off between relief and investment.24 pages · 1.55 MB

03.04The Public-Capital MultiplierWhen state-financed productive assets generate durable economic capacity.19 pages · 1.40 MB

03.05The R200 Billion FactoryA concrete industrial deployment scenario at the scale of the grant programme.21 pages · 1.46 MB

Research series

Strategic Industrialisation

Industrial systems that move South African mineral and capital capacity further up the value chain.

6 papers

04.01The South African Critical Minerals Industrial ComplexAn integrated strategy for converting mineral endowment into industrial depth.25 pages · 2.00 MB

04.02The Platinum-to-Hydrogen EconomyA value-chain model connecting platinum reserves to a hydrogen industrial base.29 pages · 1.97 MB

04.03The Manganese-to-Battery EconomyA route from mineral extraction to higher-value battery production.28 pages · 2.02 MB

04.04The Vanadium Grid-Storage EconomyDomestic grid storage as an anchor market for vanadium industrialisation.29 pages · 2.17 MB

04.05The Capital-Goods EconomyThe equipment, capabilities and supplier networks behind durable industrialisation.29 pages · 1.48 MB

04.06The Mineral Sovereign Wealth FundA fiscal architecture for converting exhaustible resources into permanent public wealth.20 pages · 1.37 MB

Research series

African Convergence

South Africa’s economy, cities and industrial role in a substantially richer African continent.

3 papers

05.01South Africa in a Richer AfricaThe macroeconomic consequences of broad African income convergence.26 pages · 1.48 MB

05.02Johannesburg as Africa’s Financial CapitalThe conditions under which Johannesburg could finance a continent-scale economy.38 pages · 1.41 MB

05.03The Factory for African UrbanisationSouth African production positioned around the infrastructure of African city growth.29 pages · 1.51 MB

The work,by series.

The work,
by series.