Extreme Fiscal Pressure

C02

The extended executive emergency makes the official debt ratio look no worse than the no-shock path by 2080, while hidden claims rise to 35 percent of GDP, real output ends 21 percent lower, and private pension wealth is 39 percent lower.

GSX:POP-012:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Common 2050 shockThe shock combines a severe pandemic, war and security mobilisation, and a recession. The immediate financing need is 14 percent of shocked-year GDP, about R1.23 trillion in constant 2026 rand.high sensitivity

A02Three governance pathsThe best case is a guardrailed constitutional emergency ending in 2052. The average case is an extended executive emergency to 2058. The worst case is a permanent constitutional suspension that has not ended by 2080.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Extended executive emergency to 2058In the extended-executive case, hidden claims rise to 35 percent of GDP, real output ends 21 percent lower, and private pension wealth and youth employment are each 39 percent lower than the comparison stated in the manuscript.modelled

Registered supporting sources

Extreme Fiscal Pressure · GSX:POP-012:PDF