The Scarce-Worker Economy

C01

In the average case, a smaller resident workforce can still coincide with real GDP at an index of 151, because output per worker rises about 57 percent. The total workforce ends at 11.60 million after 75,000 young immigrants a year and 700,000 additional older workers.

GSX:POP-010:C01 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Hypothetical starting scaleThe model follows a hypothetical South-African-scale economy from 2026 to 2076. It begins with 12 million full-year-equivalent workers, 3 million retirees, and a population of 22 million.high sensitivity

A02Average responseThe average case combines later working lives, worth 700,000 additional workers, with 75,000 young immigrants a year. General productivity rises 0.6 percent a year and automation-related productivity 0.3 percent a year. Migrants enter work after a two-year lag and retire at 67.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R01Average case, 2026 to 2076In the average case the resident workforce falls to 8.88 million, output per worker rises about 57 percent, and real GDP reaches an index of 151. The total workforce ends at 11.60 million after immigration and later working lives.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Scarce-Worker Economy · GSX:POP-010:PDF