The Scarce-Worker Economy

C02

That same average case still ends short of 738,000 health and care workers, even while digital and administrative work is in surplus. The modelled age-related contribution burden rises from about 8.3 percent of covered wages to 17.0 percent.

GSX:POP-010:C02 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A01Hypothetical starting scaleThe model follows a hypothetical South-African-scale economy from 2026 to 2076. It begins with 12 million full-year-equivalent workers, 3 million retirees, and a population of 22 million.high sensitivity

A02Average responseThe average case combines later working lives, worth 700,000 additional workers, with 75,000 young immigrants a year. General productivity rises 0.6 percent a year and automation-related productivity 0.3 percent a year. Migrants enter work after a two-year lag and retire at 67.high sensitivity

A03Occupation mismatchOutput is counted in worker-equivalents, but health, construction, education, and digital work are tracked separately. A displaced administrative worker is not treated as a nurse.high sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R02Average case, 2076 occupation balanceThe same average case ends with a modelled shortage of 738,000 health and care workers, 123,000 construction and maintenance workers, and 121,000 workers in education, safety, and public services. The age-related contribution burden rises from about 8.3 percent of covered wages to 17.0 percent.modelled

Registered supporting sources

The Scarce-Worker Economy · GSX:POP-010:PDF