C03

In the public-pension lens, the required pension-only payroll rate is 18 percent in the short-retirement case, 42 percent in the ageing-squeeze case, and 65 percent in the century-life stress case. Holding fertility at 1.7, coverage at 80 percent, and the benefit at 40 percent with price indexation, a rate at or below 20 percent requires retirement near 71, 75, or 79 as longevity rises from 90 to 100.

GSX:POP-001:C03 · Modelled · Conditional · high sensitivity · Version 1.0

Depends on

A03Public pension lensThe public model is a pay-as-you-go lens, not a replica of South Africa's current tax and grant system. Working life begins at 20, 80 percent of working-age people contribute, and migration is excluded. Survival to the scenario age is rectangular.high sensitivity

A04Payroll comparison lineA required pension-only payroll rate at or below 20 percent is the manuscript's comparison ceiling. It is not a legal or universal maximum.moderate sensitivity

Modelled results cited

R03Public pension lens, three demographic stress casesThe public model needs an 18 percent pension-only payroll rate in the short-retirement case, 42 percent in the ageing-squeeze case, and 65 percent in the century-life stress case.modelled

R04Public lens held at or below the 20 percent comparison lineWith fertility at 1.7, 80 percent coverage, a 40 percent public benefit, and price indexation, a payroll rate at or below 20 percent requires retirement near 71 if longevity is 90, 75 if it is 95, and 79 if it is 100.modelled

Registered supporting sources

When Retirement Becomes Impossible · GSX:POP-001:PDF