Experimental cells
164 games × 4 strategiesExperiment 02 · Protocol v1.0.0
What are the odds that R1,000 a month produces a R100,000 payout?
Sixteen controlled cells measure the first target hit before R12,000 and R36,000 is spent. Exact probabilities are reported alongside 1.6 million seeded entrant paths.
TargetOne gross payout ≥ R100,000
Monthly capR1,000 in every strategy
Horizons12 and 36 months
GamesFour published Class C models
The scale of the study
The event is rare.
The denominator remains visible.
Every percentage uses 100 000 independent synthetic entrants in each game-strategy cell. A hit ends the entrant's path; otherwise it continues to the spending cap.
Entrant paths
1 600 000100 000 per cellGross target
R 100 000Not the same as net wealthLargest MC deviation
0.255 ppVersus exact probabilityThe main finding
More attempts did not always improve the odds.
The monthly budget stayed fixed. The stake, number of attempts and payout multiple needed to reach R100,000 changed.
Moving from 20 × R50 to 200 × R5 reduces three-year incidence because the smaller stake needs a much rarer multiplier.
The same move increases incidence because every ticket shares one sufficiently large tail outcome and the smaller stake creates more attempts.
The crash-target model makes probability approximately proportional to stake, so fixed spend nearly equalises the four strategies.
The complete study
Follow the evidence from result to reproduction.
The overview is only the entry point. Every result, model, method and downloadable artifact has its own permanent page.
01
Results
All 16 cells, exact probabilities, simulation checks and cost-per-winner estimates.
Open section →02Strategies
Four ways to divide the same R1,000 monthly budget—and why stake size changes the target.
Open section →03Games
Published outcome distributions, tail mechanics and replication classes for every synthetic game.
Open section →04Survival
First-passage curves, time to target and the probability of reaching each spending cap without a hit.
Open section →05Methods
Frozen protocol, exact formula, seed, code hash, limitations and commands needed to reproduce the study.
Open section →06Downloads
Cell results, survival curves, audit sample, rulesets, protocol, dashboard snapshot and checksums.
Open section →07Safety
What this synthetic experiment can establish—and what it cannot say about real-world gambling.
Open section →What the result does not mean
A large payout is not a recommendation.
The study uses fictional money, synthetic entrants and controlled probability laws. It does not identify a game to play, estimate an undisclosed commercial product or imply that a target hit is likely, repeatable or profitable after spending.