Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #222 / 1,000

P0140

Small bets, infrequent. The visible outcome sits at the 83,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replication outcomes.

VISIBLE OUTCOMEInside 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable edge

Current bankroll

R 10 019

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 19

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 121Deviation R 140

Two clocks kept separate

Six calendar-month path

Month-six visible P&L R 19. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

Same policy · new random paths

-R 435

Across-world median final P&L

5th–95th percentile: -R 922 to R 604
Finished ahead: 172 / 1,000 (17,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #341 / 1,000

Frozen behaviour

Policy card

Base stake: 0,37% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.597
Mean bets / session: 1.975
Loss multiplier: 1.029×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,5% / 47,8% of session-start bankroll

Observed exposure

Game mix by turnover

Lottery / JackpotR 2958 wagers · RTP 75,25%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1504 wagers · RTP 107,56%

Craps / DiceR 1133 wagers · RTP 163,72%

BaccaratR 1123 wagers · RTP 297,32%

BlackjackR 1113 wagers · RTP 98,20%

European RouletteR 1093 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 722 wagers · RTP 62,50%

Three-Reel SlotR 371 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 371 wagers · RTP 0,00%

How to read this page

A lower loss is not the same as profit, and one high rank is not evidence of skill. Behaviour changes the wagers selected and the amount of exposure; “expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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