Completed worlds
1 000Independent recorded seedsPolicies held fixed · random paths changed
1,000 alternate worlds
A visible star can be an extreme draw. Replication shows each policy's distribution instead of treating one rank as evidence of skill.
Visible house-result percentile
96,5%Among replication-world GGRMedian policies ahead
244 / 1,00024,4%Policy manifest
FixedOnly declared stochastic choices and outcomes changeWorld-level distribution
Final house result
-R 2MFinal P&LR 2M
Why this matters
Selection creates stories.
With 1,000 observed policies, someone will look exceptional. The experiment does not infer ability from that maximum. It compares the same identifier's visible result with its 1st–99th percentile range, probability of profit, ruin probability, and median rank across new seeds.
- Freeze policy and game definitions.
- Derive an independent world stream.
- Repeat the six-month schedule model.
- Aggregate distributions, never cherry-pick a world.
Cohort stability
World-level cohort medians
Ranges describe how each cohort's median P&L changed across 1,000 complete worlds.
Small bets, frequent
-R 1 0995th–95th world range
-R 1 381 to -R 815
Small bets, infrequent
-R 2105th–95th world range
-R 258 to -R 162
Medium bets, frequent
-R 3 9375th–95th world range
-R 4 498 to -R 3 210
Medium bets, infrequent
-R 8415th–95th world range
-R 1 088 to -R 607
Large bets, frequent
-R 9 6625th–95th world range
-R 9 896 to -R 8 707
Large bets, infrequent
-R 1 7285th–95th world range
-R 2 287 to -R 1 161
Loss-chasing
-R 6 1765th–95th world range
-R 7 363 to -R 4 643
Strict limits
-R 1 2365th–95th world range
-R 1 558 to -R 916
Variable / random staking
-R 3 9925th–95th world range
-R 4 831 to -R 3 145
Random control
-R 2 5435th–95th world range
-R 3 315 to -R 1 773